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How is generative AI referencing sources? Part 2 in our series

25 April 2023By
Continuing our analysis of how the new bots are supporting their statements with evidence. Things are changing so rapidly that some of the responses we wrote about just several weeks ago have changed substantially. Today we look at ChatGPT, Bard, Bing, and scite. Bing shines with its presentation design. ChatGPT. When we ask Should I take zinc for...
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prostatecancerdecision.org

What cancer decision trees can teach us.

22 May 2018By
Suppose you’ve gotten a cancer diagnosis. Would your business experience help you navigate the care pathway? Larry Neal describes how he applied his Decision Analysis skills to prostate treatment in Eight Lessons from a Decision Professional’s Cancer Decision. When a physician said Neal had a 30% chance of having cancer, but his analysis suggested 95-99%,...
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Debiasing is painful, why analytics fail, and health app evidence.

15 May 2018By
1. Debiasing → Better decisions Debiasing is hard work, requiring honest communication and occasional stomach upset. But it gets easier and can become a habit, especially if people have a systematic way of checking their decisions for bias. In this podcast and interview transcript, Nobel-winning Richard Thaler explains several practical ways to debias decisions. First,...
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Long-term thinking, systems of intelligence, and the dangers of sloppy evidence.

24 January 2018By
1. Long view → Better financial performance.A McKinsey Global Institute team sought hard evidence supporting their observation that “Companies deliver superior results when executives manage for long-term value creation,” resisting pressure to focus on quarterly earnings (think Amazon or Unilever). So MGI developed the corporate horizon index, or CHI, to compare performance by firms exhibiting...
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Value your gut, plus the perils of decision fatigue.

7 November 2017By
1. “A gut is a personal, nontransferable attribute, which increases the value of a good one.” This classic from Harvard Business Review recaps how policy makers have historically made big decisions. It’s never just about the data. A Brief History of Decision Making. 2. A reminder to look for the nonobvious. This analysis examines differences...
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kitten on keyboard awww!

Algorithm reluctance, home-visit showdown, and the problem with wearables.

28 July 2017By
Yikes, evidence-based decisions are taking on water. Decision makers still resist handing the car keys to others, even when machines make better predictions. And government agencies continue to, ahem, struggle with making evidence-based policy.  — Tracy Altman, editor 1. Evidence-based home visit program loses funding.The evidence base has developed over 30+ years. Advocates for home visit programs –...
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prison inmate in orange clothing

Randomistas fight poverty, nurses improve youth outcomes, and decision support struggles.

7 April 2017By
1. Jason Zweig tells the story of randomistas, who use randomized, controlled trials to pinpoint what helps people become self-sufficient around the globe. The Anti-Poverty Experiment describes several successful, data-driven programs, ranging from financial counseling to grants of livestock. 2. Can an early childhood program prevent child abuse, crime, drug abuse, and neglect? Yes, says...
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ROI from evidence-based government, milking data for cows, and flu shot benefits diminishing.

17 February 2017By
1. Evidence standards → Knowing what works → Pay for success Susan Urahn says we’ve reached a Tipping Point on Evidence-Based Policymaking. She explains in @Governing that 24 US governments have directed $152M to programs with an estimated $521M ROI: “an innovative and rigorous approach to policymaking: Create an inventory of currently funded programs; review...
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Everyone’s decision process, C-Suite judgment, and the Golden Gut.

28 December 2016By
1. SPOTLIGHT: MCDA, a decision process for everyone. ‘Multiple criteria decision analysis’ is a crummy name for a great concept (aren’t all big decisions analyzed using multiple criteria?). MCDA means assessing alternatives while simultaneously considering several objectives. It’s a useful way to look at difficult choices in healthcare, oil production, or real estate. But oftentimes,...
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Social program RCTs, health guidelines, and evidence-based mentoring.

11 December 2016By
1. Evidence → Social RCTs → Transformational change More progress toward evidence-based social programs. The Laura and John Arnold foundation expanded its funding of low-cost randomized controlled trials. @LJA_Foundation, an advocate for evidence-based, multidisciplinary approaches, has committed $100,000+ for all RCT proposals satisfying its RFP criteria and earning a high rating from its expert review...
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Museum musings.

Pondering the places where people interact with artificial intelligence: Collaboration on evidence-based decision-making, automation of data-driven processes, machine learning, things like that.

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