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decision analysis

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data visualization of crime statistics using Tableau

But where is the decision? Data visualizations don’t show the why and how.

29 January 2018By
Technology helps us discover meaningful patterns: Buying behavior, criminal activity, health effects. But when we succumb to pretty pictures and mindless measurement, shiny data fails to help answer important questions. Source: Tableau. This data visualization tool would be great for someone seeking crime stats – say, for law enforcement or house buying. But it doesn’t...
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Papers We Love: Judgment Under Uncertainty / Cognitive Bias

17 January 2018By
Our founder, Tracy Allison Altman, will talk about cognitive bias and behavioral economics for software design @ Papers We Love – Denver. Tversky and Kahneman’s classic “Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases” challenged conventional thinking about bias in decision making, inspiring new approaches to cognitive science, choice architecture, public policy, and the underlying technology. Join...
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Underwriters + algorithms, avoiding bad choices, and evidence for rare illness.

3 August 2017By
1. Underwriters + algorithms = Best of both worlds. We hear so much about machine automation replacing humans. But several promising applications are designed to supplement complex human knowledge and guide decisions, not replace them: Think primary care physicians, policy makers, or underwriters. Leslie Scism writes in the Wall Street Journal that AIG “pairs its...
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photo of people grouped together

False dichotomy: Data-driven vs. gut-feel

21 July 2017By
Smart decision-making is more complicated than becoming ‘data-driven’, whatever that means exactly. We know people can make better decisions if they consider relevant evidence, and that process is getting easier. But too often tech enthusiasts dismiss people’s decisions as based on gut feel, as if data will save us from ourselves. Let’s put an end to...
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calculator saying I don't Know

Don’t show me the evidence. Show me how you weighed the evidence.

30 April 2017By
Sometimes we fool ourselves into thinking that if people just had access to all the relevant data, then the right decision – and better outcomes – would surely follow. Of course we know that’s not the case. A number of things block a clear path from evidence to decision to outcome. Evidence can’t speak for...
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bad arguments

Choices, policy, and evidence-based investment.

14 December 2016By
1. Bad Arguments → Bad Choices Great news. There will be a follow-on to the excellent Bad Arguments book by @alialmossawi. The book of Bad Choices will be released this April by major publishers. You can preorder now. 2. Evidence-based decisions → Effective policy outcomes The conservative think tank, Heritage Foundation, is advocating for evidence-based...
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10 Years After Ioannidis, speedy decision habits, and the peril of whether or not.

28 October 2016By
1. Much has happened since Why Most Published Research Findings Are False, the much-discussed PLOS essay by John P. A. Ioannidis offering evidence that “false findings may be the majority or even the vast majority of published research claims….” Why are so many findings never replicated? Ioannidis listed study power and bias, the number of...
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Scrabble analytics - Evidence Soup DATA FOR DECIDING

Grit isn’t the answer, plus Scrabble and golf analytics.

24 May 2016By
1. Poor kids already have grit: Educational Controversy, 2016 edition. All too often, we run with a sophisticated, research-based idea, oversimplify it, and run it into the ground. 2016 seems to be the year for grit. Jean Rhodes, who heads up the Chronicle of Evidence-Based Mentoring (@UMBmentoring) explains that grit is not a panacea for...
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photo of girls playing baseketball

How women decide, and Chief Cognitive Officers.

17 May 2016By
1. Do we judge women’s decisions differently? Cognitive psychologist Therese Huston’s book is How Women Decide: What’s True, What’s Not, and What Strategies Spark the Best Choices. It may sound unscientific to suggest there’s a particular way that several billion people make decisions, but the author doesn’t seem nonchalant about drawing specific conclusions. The book...
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Museum musings.

Pondering the places where people interact with artificial intelligence: Collaboration on evidence-based decision-making, automation of data-driven processes, machine learning, things like that.

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